Overview - Text Version

Chart 1

Chart 1a
Labour Market Since November 2015
  Cumulative change in employment Unemployment rate
2015-11-01   7.1
2015-12-01 9 7.1
2016-01-01 4.5 7.2
2016-02-01 11.5 7.2
2016-03-01 42.8 7
2016-04-01 56.7 7.1
2016-05-01 48.5 6.9
2016-06-01 67.7 6.8
2016-07-01 57.6 7
2016-08-01 94.5 7
2016-09-01 161.1 7
2016-10-01 196.9 6.9
2016-11-01 198.9 6.8
2016-12-01 231.2 6.9
2017-01-01 281.8 6.7
2017-02-01 303.4 6.6
2017-03-01 322 6.6
2017-04-01 338.8 6.4
2017-05-01 371.4 6.5
2017-06-01 426.5 6.5
2017-07-01 449.6 6.3
2017-08-01 472.2 6.2
2017-09-01 484.8 6.2
2017-10-01 512.5 6.2
2017-11-01 593.7 5.9
2017-12-01 658.5 5.8
2018-01-01 570.5 5.9
Note: Last data point is January 2018.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Chart 1b
Average Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Since 2016Q2
  per cent
Canada 3.2
Germany 2.4
United States 2.4
France 2
United Kingdom 1.9
Japan 1.5
Italy 1.5
Note: Average quarterly real GDP growth. Last data point is 2017Q4 except for Canada, for which it is 2017Q3.
Source: Haver Analytics.

Chart 2

Chart 2a
Real Household Consumption Growth and Consumer Confidence
The data from chart 2 cannot be released due to legal, licensing, or copryright reasons.

Chart 2b
Growth in Average Weekly Earnings
  per cent, year over year
2012-01-01 1.4
2012-02-01 1.2
2012-03-01 1.9
2012-04-01 2.2
2012-05-01 2.1
2012-06-01 2.7
2012-07-01 3.6
2012-08-01 3.6
2012-09-01 3.4
2012-10-01 2.4
2012-11-01 2.7
2012-12-01 2.6
2013-01-01 1.8
2013-02-01 2.8
2013-03-01 1.9
2013-04-01 1.6
2013-05-01 2.5
2013-06-01 1.8
2013-07-01 1
2013-08-01 0.8
2013-09-01 1.1
2013-10-01 1.4
2013-11-01 2.1
2013-12-01 2.4
2014-01-01 2.5
2014-02-01 2.4
2014-03-01 2.6
2014-04-01 3.1
2014-05-01 2.4
2014-06-01 2.9
2014-07-01 3.5
2014-08-01 3.1
2014-09-01 3
2014-10-01 2.7
2014-11-01 1.8
2014-12-01 1.8
2015-01-01 2.7
2015-02-01 2.5
2015-03-01 2.7
2015-04-01 2.4
2015-05-01 1.3
2015-06-01 1.8
2015-07-01 1.4
2015-08-01 0.6
2015-09-01 1.5
2015-10-01 1.4
2015-11-01 1.5
2015-12-01 1.7
2016-01-01 0.1
2016-02-01 0.4
2016-03-01 0.5
2016-04-01 -0.2
2016-05-01 0.6
2016-06-01 0.4
2016-07-01 -0.2
2016-08-01 1.4
2016-09-01 0.1
2016-10-01 -0.1
2016-11-01 0.9
2016-12-01 1.4
2017-01-01 1.7
2017-02-01 1.1
2017-03-01 1
2017-04-01 1.9
2017-05-01 1.7
2017-06-01 1.5
2017-07-01 1.4
2017-08-01 1.9
2017-09-01 2.9
2017-10-01 3.1
2017-11-01 2.8
Note: Last data point is November 2017.
Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Employment, Payroll and Hours (SEPH).

Chart 3

Chart 3a
Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Year %
1966 27.3
1967 26.9
1968 25.5
1969 23
1970 22.5
1971 22.4
1972 21.8
1973 20.3
1974 18.4
1975 19.9
1976 20.8
1977 23.7
1978 26.7
1979 27.7
1980 29.2
1981 29.3
1982 35.3
1983 37.5
1984 42.2
1985 45.7
1986 49.1
1987 50.1
1988 50.4
1989 51.4
1990 54.5
1991 58.6
1992 62.7
1993 65.5
1994 66.4
1995 66.8
1996 65.7
1997 61.9
1998 59.1
1999 53.7
2000 47.2
2001 44.9
2002 42.5
2003 39.7
2004 37.2
2005 34
2006 31.3
2007 29.1
2008 28.1
2009 33.1
2010 33.1
2011 33
2012 33.4
2013 32.2
2014 30.9
2015 31
2016 31
2017 30.4
2018 30.1
2019 29.8
2020 29.4
2021 28.9
2022 28.4
Sources: Public Accounts of Canada; Statistics Canada; Department of Finance Canada calculations.
Chart 3b
IMF Forecast for G7 General Government Net Debt-to-GDP Ratios, 2017
  per cent
Canada 24.6
Germany 45.8
United Kingdom 80.5
United States 82.5
France 88.5
Japan 120.9
Italy 121.2
Notes: The general government net debt-to-GDP ratio is the ratio of total liabilities, net of financial assets, of the central, states and local levels of government, as well as those in social security funds, to GDP. For Canada, this includes the federal, provincial/territorial and local government sectors, as well as the Canada Pension Plan and the Quebec Pension Plan.
Source: IMF, October 2017 Fiscal Monitor.

Chart 4 - Budgetary Balance

Budgetary Balance
$ billions
  Budget 2017 (left scale) Budget 2018 (left scale) Budgetary balance as a share of GDP (right scale)
2017-2018 -28.5 -19.4 -0.9
2018-2019 -27.4 -18.1 -0.8
2019-2020 -23.4 -17.5 -0.8
2020-2021 -21.7 -16.9 -0.7
2021-2022 -18.8 -13.8 -0.6
2022-2023   -12.3 -0.5

Chart 5

Chart 5a
Federal Budgetary Balance
$ billions
   2016- 2017  2017- 2018  2018- 2019  2019- 2020  2020- 2021  2021- 2022  2022- 2023
Budget 2018 survey -17.8 -19.4 -15.1 -14.5 -13.9 -10.8 -9.3
Budget 2018 survey (top four) -17.8 -19.4 -14.7 -12 -10.3 -5.6 -3
Budget 2018 survey (bottom four) -17.8 -19.5 -15.8 -18.7 -18.6 -16 -15.2
Notes: Based on the average private sector economists’ projection for nominal GDP and excluding the adjustment for risk. The top (bottom) four scenarios are based on the average of the most optimistic (pessimistic) projections for nominal GDP among the economists surveyed.
Sources: Department of Finance Canada December 2017 survey of private sector economists; Department of Finance Canada calculations.
Chart 5b
Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio
per cent of GDP
  2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023
Budget 2018 survey 31 30.4 29.9 29.5 29 28.4 27.8
Budget 2018 survey (top four) 31 30.4 29.9 29.2 28.5 27.6 26.6
Budget 2018 survey (bottom four) 31 30.4 30 30.1 29.8 29.5 29
Notes: Based on the average private sector economists’ projection for nominal GDP and excluding the adjustment for risk. The top (bottom) four scenarios are based on the average of the most optimistic (pessimistic) projections for nominal GDP among the economists surveyed.
Sources: Department of Finance Canada December 2017 survey of private sector economists; Department of Finance Canada calculations.
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